Edelen’s gamble

The Candidates

Rocky Adkins

The Race

The race began with Andy Beshear as the clear leader of the field, Rocky Adkins as the dark horse, and Adam Edelen as the odd man out. Beshear had the name recognition and institutional support, and all he needed to do was hang on to it. Really, it seems like that’s all he’s attempted to do, as he’s consistently avoided standing out from the field or going negative on his primary opponents. He’s been running against Bevin far more than Adkins or Edelen. This is a fairly typical strategy for someone starting out with a huge lead. Adkins’s strategy is also fairly typical. Traditional, even. He’s taken the old-school approach of showing up to small towns and making a personal pitch with the folksiness cranked up to 11.

Will it work?

The Democratic Party of Kentucky has been shedding its conservative wing for a long time now. Let’s compare two primaries, 2000 and 2016, and let’s identify areas where we’d expect the voters to more resemble Democrats outside of Kentucky. I chose the Louisville, Cincinnati, and Lexington metros, as well as three counties with large college populations: Warren, Madison, and Calloway.

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Opinion Haver

Opinion Haver

@asinmarx on twitter and HeartCooksBrain on DKE. I’m half of the writing team at Primaries For Progress, which you should check out at primaries.substack.com